Universität HamburgZentrum für Marine und Atmosphärische Wissenschaften

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Universität Hamburg

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FNU Universität Hamburg
Grindelberg 5
D-20144 Hamburg
Tel.: +49 40 42838-6593

HTM

The Hamburg Tourism Model is a simulation model of tourism flows to and from 207 countries. It is used to analyse scenarios of population and economic growth as well as climate change and climate policy.

The model was originally developed by Jackie Hamilton, David Maddison, and Richard Tol, with later additions by Andrea Bigano and Karen Mayor. The model is now co-hosted by Hamburg University (FNU/ZMAW) and ESRI (transport).

The current version of the model is fairly simple. For instance, it works on a national resolution. Click here for the national data. But, we have recently compiled the data to increase the spatial resolution. Click here for the subnational data, and here for the first application. We are planning much more.

The model code of version 1.0, 1.1, 1.2, and 1.3 is available. Version 1.4 is the latest version; here are sample results. You will need TurboPascal 7.0 for DOS to operate it. This programme is no longer on the market.

Publications

K. Mayor and R.S.J. Tol (2007), 'The Impact of the EU-US Open Skies Agreement on International Travel and Carbon Dioxide Emissions'Journal of Air Transport Management, 14, 507-513. (version 1.3)

J.D. FitzGerald and R.S.J. Tol (2007), 'Airline Emissions of Carbon Dioxide in the European Trading System', CESifo Forum, 1/2007, 51-54. (version 1.3)

K. Mayor and R.S.J. Tol (2007), 'The Impact of the UK Aviation Tax on Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Visitor Numbers', Transport Policy, 14, 507-513. (version 1.3)

R.S.J. Tol (2007), 'The Impact of a Carbon Tax on International Tourism', Transportation Research Part D, 12, 129-142. (version 1.3)

A. Bigano, J.M. Hamilton and R.S.J. Tol (2007), 'The Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A Simulation Study', Integrated Assessment Journal, 7 (1), 25-29. (version 1.2)

A. Bigano, J.M. Hamilton and R.S.J. Tol (2008), Climate Change and Tourism in the Mediterranean. working paper (version 1.2)

J.M. Hamilton and R.S.J. Tol (2007), 'The Impact of Climate Change on Tourism in Germany, the UK and Ireland: A Simulation Study', Regional Environmental Change, 7 (3), 161-172 (version 1.2)

J.M. Hamilton, D.J. Maddison and R.S.J. Tol (2005), ‘The Effects of Climate Change on International Tourism’, Climate Research, 29, 245-254. (version 1.1)

J.M. Hamilton, D.J. Maddison and R.S.J. Tol (2005), ‘Climate change and international tourism: a simulation study’, Global Environmental Change, 15 (3), 253-266 (version1.0) This paper attracted the attention of New Scientist.

Related Publications

A. Bigano, F. Bosello, R. Roson and R.S.J. Tol (forthcoming), 'Economy-Wide Impacts of Climate Change: A Joint Analysis for Sea Level Rise and Tourism', Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. working paper

S. Lyons, K. Mayor and R.S.J. Tol (2008), The Climate Preferences of Irish Tourists working paper

S. Lyons, K. Mayor and R.S.J. Tol (2007), Holiday Destinations: Understanding the Travel Choices of Irish Tourists working paper

A. Bigano, J.M. Hamilton, M.A. Lau, R.S.J. Tol and Y. Zhou (2007), 'A Global Database of Domestic and International Tourist Numbers at National and Subnational Level', International Journal of Tourism Research, 9, 147-174. working paper

M. Berrittella, A. Bigano, R. Roson and R.S.J. Tol (2006), 'A General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tourism', Tourism Management, 27 (5), 913-924.

A. Bigano, A. Goria, J.M. Hamilton and R.S.J. Tol (2005), 'The Effect of Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events on Tourism', in A. Lanza, A. Markandya and F. Pigliaru (eds.), The Economics of Tourism and Sustainabie Development, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham. working paper

A. Bigano, J.M. Hamilton and R.S.J. Tol (2006), 'The impact of climate on holiday destination choice', Climatic Change, 76 (3-4), 389-406.

J.M. Hamilton (2002), Climate and the Destination Choice of German Tourists, Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change FNU-15 revised (2003), Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Hamburg University, Hamburg. download (submitted, Tourism Management)

J.M. Hamilton (2007), Coastal Landscape and the Hedonic Price of Accomodation, Ecological Economics, 62, 504-602.

J.M. Hamilton and M.A. Lau (2004), The role of climate information in tourist destination choice decision-making, FNU-56, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Hamburg. download (In Gössling, S. and C.M. Hall (eds.), Tourism and Global Environmental Change. London: Routledge.)

J.M. Hamilton, D.J. Maddison and R.S.J. Tol (2005), Climate Preferences and Destination Choice: A Segmentation Approach, FNU-90,, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Hamburg. download (submitted)

J.M. Hamilton and R.S.J. Tol (2004), The Impact of Climate Change on Tourism and Recreation, FNU-52, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Hamburg. download (forthcoming, Snowmass book)

M.A. Lau (2006), An analysis of the travel motivation of tourists from the People’s Republic of China, FNU-108, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Hamburg. download (submitted)

M.A. Lau and R.S.J. Tol (2006), The Chinese are coming – An analysis of the preferences of Chinese holiday makers at home and abroad, FNU-107, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Hamburg. download

W. Lise and R.S.J. Tol (2002), ‘The Impact of Climate on Tourism Demand’, Climatic Change, 55 (4), 429-449.

D.J. Maddison, (2001), ‘In Search of Warmer Climates? The Impact of Climate Change on Flows of British Tourists’, Climatic Change, 49,183-208.